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Q.III/2012: Pangasius export to the U.S. and China to rise

In Q.III/2012, pangasius production is estimated to ensure only 70 percent of raw material for processing because farmers left their fish ponds or lately stocked fish in the first two quarters of the year.

In late Q.II/2012 and early Q.III/2012, price of raw fish slumped by VND2,000 – 3,000 per kilogram, but fish companies lacked money to purchase fish. It will go up since August and reach to VND24,000 – 25,000 per kilogram in late Q.III/2012 along with some positive changes in supply – demand in both importing markets and domestic market.

Pangasius crisis from January – June 2012 makes many sources in the industry worry about a future scarcity of fish supply in the last months of 2012 and in early 2013. Short supply of commercial fish is because of drop in fish fingerlings production and farming superficies. Moreover, many fish processors and farmers lack money to pay back bank credits, so they can not invest comprehensively and urgently in fish farming.

Rebound of pangasius export in late Q.III/2012

Pangasius has now built up their image and trademark in many different fish-consuming countries. Over the past years, fast-growing trade and rising consumption demand in the world market made Vietnam fish suffer unfair competition and smear in some markets. In contrast, pangasius is still a popular fish with good quality and reasonable price, which is welcome by consumers particularly in economic crisis time.

Vietnam pangasius imports into the EU keep falling by 16 – 20 percent in July – August 2012 and got recovery in September. The EU still remains the most important market and contributes 25 – 27 percent to Vitenam total pangasius export value. Other potential markets (Russia, Brazil, Colombia with proportion of 8.5 – 9 percent) is limiting imports since Q.II/2012. The decline will fall by 40 – 50 percent in Q.III/2012.

Furthermore, price of exported pangasius is not able to rise in Q.III/2012, but stay at the level of Q.II/2012 because almost other white fish or tilapia with huge supply in the global market report declining price. So Vietnam pangasius can not stay out the trend.

However, in late Q.II/2012 and in Q.III/2012, pangasius will saw strong growth in most importing countries, including the U.S. large market (+27 – 30 percent), ASEAN (+30 – 40 percent), China (40 – 60 percent)…As usual in the third quarter, foreign fish importers accelerate buying fish to satisfy consumption demand in the year’s end holidays; therefore, earning from export is predicted to reach its peak in this period.

With shortage of raw material, lack of capital for fish processing for export, and uncertain global market, price of pangasius will keep soaring from Q.II/2012 and from the same period of 2011. Export revenue reachs US$480 million, up 12 percent from US$428.3 million in Q.II/2012, representing 26.3 percent of total seafood export estimated in Q.III/2012.

(According to Report on Vietnam seafood export in Q.II/2012 – VASEP)

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